trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -17.8% | -25.6% | 50% | 0% | -32.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +21.4% | +9.8% | 92% | 77% | +8.3% |
| all | 22 | +41.5% | +28.0% | 82% | 73% | +9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +28.0% | 73% | +9.3% |
| 10% | +15.7% | 41% | -1.2% |
| 15% | +4.6% | 32% | -10.7% |
| 20% | -5.7% | 27% | -19.5% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | May 28 | $700 | −$319 | -46% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | May 23 | $400 | +$40 | +10% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET | Apr 18 | $1,000 | +$211 | +21% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | Apr 18 | $500 | +$328 | +66% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | Apr 18 | $1,000 | +$368 | +37% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | Apr 18 | $1,000 | +$151 | +15% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET | Apr 18 | $1,000 | +$174 | +17% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET | Apr 18 | $800 | +$36 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET | Apr 18 | $1,000 | +$144 | +14% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET | Apr 18 | $500 | +$440 | +88% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET | Apr 18 | $1,000 | +$228 | +23% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | Apr 18 | $1,000 | +$151 | +15% |
| Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? | Apr 17 | $100 | +$12 | +12% |
| Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Feb 06 | $200 | +$40 | +20% |
| Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | Jan 26 | $80 | −$80 | -100% |
| Will Hyperbeat launch a token in 2025? | Jan 26 | $40 | +$11 | +26% |
| Will Zama launch a token in 2025? | Jan 26 | $20 | +$132 | +661% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Jan 26 | $500 | +$278 | +56% |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | Nov 15 | $150 | −$102 | -68% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? | Jan 01 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Usyk beat Fury? | Dec 22 | $15 | +$11 | +75% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 09 | $113 | +$73 | +65% |