Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb116…c4e1 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$783 (-34%) realized −$776 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$258
politics 32% +$60
sports 25% −$580
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 12 -40.4% -46.1% 33% 33% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.1% 33% -47.1%
10% -51.3% 25% -52.1%
15% -56.0% 8% -56.8%
20% -60.3% 8% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$119 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized−$776
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage158d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $348 $341 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-02? Feb 02 $174 −$174 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 02 $145 +$28 +19%
AVS Futebol vs. SC Braga: O/U 3.5 Feb 02 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? Jan 31 $53 +$12 +23%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 23 $100 −$56 -56%
Golden Knights vs. Bruins Jan 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5 Jan 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 202 Jan 18 $174 +$90 +52%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jan 18 $304 −$23 -8%
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jan 13 $154 +$49 +32%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 13 $206 −$52 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $223 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $134 7d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-02? BUY Yes 78¢ $174 134d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $173 134d
AVS Futebol vs. SC Braga: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $470 134d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 27¢ $66 136d
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? SELL Yes 43¢ $65 136d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $45 145d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL Yes $44 145d
Golden Knights vs. Bruins BUY Golden Knights 59¢ $75 145d
Golden Knights vs. Bruins BUY Golden Knights 57¢ $25 145d
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? BUY Yes 35¢ $53 145d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 145d
Spurs vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 145d
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 202 SELL No 98¢ $264 149d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes $100 149d
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 202 BUY No 65¢ $174 149d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio SELL Yes 18¢ $174 149d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio BUY Yes 22¢ $204 154d
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid SELL Yes 48¢ $203 154d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $107 154d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio SELL Yes 17¢ $107 154d
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid BUY Yes 37¢ $154 155d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $154 155d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $99 157d
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio BUY Yes 16¢ $100 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.38 · official $341.38 (match) · 35 history records