Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb114…8355 sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$207 (-27%) realized −$187 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$152
sports 29% +$90
crypto 27% −$122
other 10% −$1
politics 4% −$21
economics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +45.3% +31.5% 65% 65% +35.7%
≤30d 23 +45.3% +31.5% 65% 65% +35.7%
≤90d 30 +11.4% +0.8% 50% 50% -25.4%
all 44 -3.8% -12.9% 45% 41% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 41% -35.5%
10% -21.3% 39% -41.7%
15% -28.9% 34% -47.3%
20% -35.8% 23% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 52
History coverage150d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$6 +39%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +123%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$33 +318%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $14 +$5 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +112%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$27 +535%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +39%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 31? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 16? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 16? Mar 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 16? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 29 $109 −$109 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $13 −$9 -72%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)? Jan 29 $34 +$9 +27%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? Jan 26 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9PM ET Jan 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6PM ET Jan 25 $10 +$12 +123%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Jan 24 $45 −$22 -49%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 23 $36 −$28 -77%
New pandemic in 2026? Jan 22 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $66 −$50 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 19? Jan 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19? Jan 18 $15 +$3 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 18 Jan 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 18 Jan 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? Jan 18 $25 −$24 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 8h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 8h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $15 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $10 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 6¢ $10 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 12¢ $2 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $43 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 36¢ $19 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $4 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $22 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $4 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $53 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 18h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 18h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 7¢ $10 18h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 70¢ $16 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $15 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.73 · official $54.73 (match) · 125 history records