Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B1 0xb113…8bc6 sports 627 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,766 (+3%) realized +$18,063 · open +$703
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate80%454W / 110L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$928per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$1,107est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$20,317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$1,789
14 days+$3,163
30 days+$6,429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$8,446
other 41% +$4,212
crypto 1% +$14
world 0% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -10.4% -18.9% 78% 22% -8.1%
≤30d 245 +2.0% -7.7% 82% 32% -7.4%
≤90d 564 +1.0% -8.6% 80% 36% -7.6%
all 564 +1.0% -8.6% 80% 36% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 36% -7.6%
10% -17.4% 25% -16.5%
15% ← realistic here -25.3% 15% -24.5%
20% -32.7% 11% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$1,022) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$226 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$20,317
Realized+$18,063
Unrealized+$703
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses454 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$1,107
Open positions63
Markets (closed)564 / 627
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$928
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,202 $2,199 −$3 (-0%)
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Netherlands 98¢ 98¢ $2,178 $2,184 +$7 (+0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,171 $2,168 −$3 (-0%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Netherlands 93¢ 93¢ $2,069 $2,070 +$1 (+0%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Under 91¢ 91¢ $2,026 $2,025 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $2,035 $2,005 −$30 (-1%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 100¢ $904 $1,000 +$96 (+11%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $577 $601 +$23 (+4%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 38¢ 38¢ $570 $577 +$7 (+1%)
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $447 $444 −$3 (-1%)
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 36¢ $271 $323 +$51 (+19%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $305 $317 +$12 (+4%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? No 78¢ 74¢ $312 $298 −$14 (-4%)
Will Teun Koopmeiners score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 68¢ $324 $274 −$50 (-15%)
Will Aurélien Tchouaméni score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 68¢ $288 $270 −$18 (-6%)
Will João Cancelo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 67¢ $272 $268 −$4 (-1%)
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 63¢ $72 $252 +$180 (+250%)
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 47¢ $210 $241 +$31 (+15%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $227 $228 +$1 (+1%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 56¢ $187 $220 +$33 (+18%)
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 54¢ $222 $218 −$4 (-2%)
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 66¢ $135 $196 +$62 (+46%)
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 32¢ $124 $169 +$44 (+35%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 78¢ $71 $158 +$87 (+123%)
Will Ibrahima Konaté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 91¢ $130 $141 +$11 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu Jun 20 $1,085 +$26 +2%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $294 −$290 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $682 +$67 +10%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 20 $1,668 +$86 +5%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $957 +$143 +15%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $690 +$310 +45%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $645 +$132 +20%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,620 +$30 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $420 −$215 -51%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9,919 +$80 +1%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 19 $137 +$2 +1%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $4,055 +$165 +4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $250 +$25 +10%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 19 $465 −$465 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,372 +$28 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $582 +$13 +2%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 19 $3,145 +$19 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $550 +$30 +6%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1,216 +$15 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,917 +$29 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $490 +$110 +22%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $2,175 +$47 +2%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $3,283 +$50 +2%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 18 $3,283 +$50 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $780 +$220 +28%
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marcus Rashford score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $810 +$10 +1%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $981 +$19 +2%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $678 +$22 +3%
Spread: Ghana (-4.5) Jun 18 $3,306 +$27 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $728 +$24 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $590 +$60 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $135 +$20 +14%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $160 +$15 +9%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,634 +$8 +0%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 17 $930 +$20 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,640 +$360 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14,595 +$142 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $135 +$165 +122%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $332 +$68 +20%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $3,310 +$23 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $2,530 +$20 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $2,191 +$31 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9,375 +$165 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 58¢ $294 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu BUY Aleksandar Vukic 98¢ $990 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu BUY Aleksandar Vukic 98¢ $43 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu BUY Aleksandar Vukic 98¢ $43 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu BUY Aleksandar Vukic 98¢ $5 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu BUY Aleksandar Vukic 98¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $239 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $6 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $21 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $3 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $2 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $2 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $2 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $6 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $31 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $9 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $15 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $230 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $799 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $204 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $207 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $87 4h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 93¢ $2,069 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 99¢ $217 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 99¢ $534 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $50 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 99¢ $320 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,317.09 · official $20,332.73 (match) · 3500 history records