Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb10f…6097 other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$13
politics 31% −$11
sports 12% +$43
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 116 +0.5% -9.1% 11% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×10.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage129d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $238 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $214 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $162 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $167 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $231 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $367 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $174 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $212 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 15 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $223 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 11 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $446 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $412 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $216 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 12 $170 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $338 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $250 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $22 7h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $22 11h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $28 37h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 21d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 21d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $238 22d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $238 24d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $214 24d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $214 24d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $162 24d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $162 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $166 26d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $166 26d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $167 26d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $167 26d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $201 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $201 28d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $179 28d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $179 28d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $231 29d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $231 29d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $182 29d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $182 30d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $221 30d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $221 30d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $164 30d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $164 31d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $174 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 394 history records