Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B1 0xb10e…cbc9 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$643 (-46%) realized −$643 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%5W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-47.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-41.4%	-47.0%	29%	29%	-60.0%
≤30d	17	-41.4%	-47.0%	29%	29%	-60.0%
≤90d	17	-41.4%	-47.0%	29%	29%	-60.0%
all	17	-41.4%	-47.0%	29%	29%	-60.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-47.0%	29%	-60.0%
10%	-52.1%	24%	-63.8%
15%	-56.7%	18%	-67.3%
20%	-60.9%	6%	-70.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -41% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -68% → late -17% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$74 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.11 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$643

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses5 / 12

Open positions0

Markets (closed)17 / 17

History coverage74d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 17 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 28	$61	−$60	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 28	$46	+$19	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 28	$31	+$15	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 28	$284	−$144	-51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 28	$107	+$22	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 28	$117	+$34	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$4	-84%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 23	$26	−$4	-14%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 23	$16	−$7	-47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 23	$16	−$15	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 23	$21	−$2	-8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 23	$32	−$30	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 23	$16	+$8	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Jun 23	$19	−$19	-100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Jun 23	$184	−$180	-98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Jun 23	$108	−$104	-96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Jun 23	$323	−$312	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	SELL Up	55¢	$48	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	SELL Down	51¢	$68	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	SELL Up	43¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$127	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	SELL Down	10¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	SELL Up	3¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$5	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	SELL Down	41¢	$13	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records