Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:59:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B1 0xb10d…4ba0 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$25,710 (+22%) realized +$25,710 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%37W / 25L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$1,824per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$722est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,359
7 days−$5,487
14 days−$2,625
30 days+$5,282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$17,234
other 46% +$5,532
world 2% +$2,805
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -40.7% -46.3% 29% 24% -21.7%
≤30d 29 -12.0% -20.4% 48% 38% -3.0%
≤90d 62 +16.8% +5.7% 60% 48% +10.3%
all 62 +16.8% +5.7% 60% 48% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.7% 48% +10.3%
10% ← realistic here -4.4% 47% -0.3%
15% -13.7% 37% -9.9%
20% -22.1% 35% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$2,451) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,175 vs −$779 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$25,710
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses37 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$722
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1,824
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,601 +$203 +4%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $49 −$20 -41%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Jun 21 $737 −$737 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 21 $1,439 −$1,439 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? Jun 21 $1,134 −$1,134 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jun 21 $2,066 −$2,066 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? Jun 21 $731 −$731 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 21 $2,306 −$2,306 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? Jun 21 $2,136 −$2,136 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,897 −$1,897 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4,351 +$1,374 +32%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $4,150 +$1,535 +37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,604 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4,360 +$1,090 +25%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,524 −$23 -0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,695 +$2,805 +104%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,304 −$168 -5%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $250 +$7 +3%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $355 −$6 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,581 +$3,029 +117%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $2,800 +$2,585 +92%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $4,020 +$1,005 +25%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $2,326 +$1,750 +75%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $7,576 +$1,712 +23%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $2,601 +$2,499 +96%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,965 +$755 +19%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,401 −$2,401 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $464 +$2 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $449 −$383 -85%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,825 +$2,850 +156%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,038 +$2,204 +108%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,975 +$2,136 +108%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2,160 +$1,836 +85%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 13 $2,080 +$1,920 +92%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2,640 +$227 +9%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 10 $1,644 −$52 -3%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $2,451 +$1,379 +56%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $118 +$144 +122%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 05 $2,350 +$1,436 +61%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1,499 −$26 -2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $602 $0 +0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $2,310 +$1,353 +59%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1,030 +$1,339 +130%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 27 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $840 −$32 -4%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $2,189 +$216 +10%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $809 +$241 +30%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1,340 +$49 +4%
Blues vs. Utah Apr 17 $696 +$784 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $5,804 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 7h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $2,987 13h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $2,614 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $193 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $5 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $83 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $52 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $25 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $5 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $10 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $21 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $239 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $2 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $2 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $7 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $7 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $4 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $1 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $5 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $2 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $49 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $2 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $79 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $2 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $12 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $6 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $57 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $7 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.34 · official $8.34 (match) · 764 history records