Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb10c…166c other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 443d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$3
other 28% +$2
politics 20% −$3
sports 6% +$1
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% +$2
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -10.4%
all 37 +3.8% -6.1% 32% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 5% -9.6%
10% -15.0% 5% -18.3%
15% -23.3% 5% -26.2%
20% -30.8% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage443d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $18 −$2 -14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 26 $1 $0 -12%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $26 −$3 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -31%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $27 $0 +1%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 +$2 +124%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 9? May 07 $24 $0 +1%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 07 $2 +$2 +148%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in April 2025? May 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? May 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 35m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 43h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $32 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $24 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $36 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $36 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $21 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $17 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $39 26d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 175d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? SELL No 82¢ $23 358d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 364d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 373d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 387d
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? BUY No 94¢ $26 401d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records