Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb106…deae politics 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 415d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24,797 (+9%) realized +$24,306 · open +$491
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate93%25W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$9,879per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$7,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$537
14 days+$1,313
30 days−$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% +$25,809
other 7% +$1,251
sports 3% −$2,360
world 2% +$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.6% -5.3% 100% 8% -7.1%
≤30d 20 -4.0% -13.2% 90% 15% -10.7%
≤90d 21 -3.8% -13.0% 90% 14% -10.4%
all 27 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 19% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 19% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -10.8%
15% -26.9% 0% -19.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$5,231) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,079 vs −$1,289 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.47 per $1 lost it wins $10.47
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

415d coverage
Net worth$7,117
Realized+$24,306
Unrealized+$491
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses25 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage415d
Avg bet$9,879
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $6,626 $7,117 +$491 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,001 +$34 +3%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $502 +$49 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,633 +$8 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$55 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,001 +$34 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,001 +$24 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,007 +$97 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7,200 +$14 +0%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $5,231 +$26 +0%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $2,001 +$15 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $3,341 +$36 +1%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 09 $104 −$77 -74%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 09 $3,415 +$519 +15%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $3,090 +$257 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $2,508 −$2,500 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 01 $5,000 +$598 +12%
Will Darren Bailey win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary e Mar 21 $6,302 +$73 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $6,109 +$193 +3%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 28 $1,074 +$38 +4%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority? May 16 $5,200 +$910 +18%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after th May 05 $30,916 +$619 +2%
Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary el May 03 $79,471 +$2,774 +4%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 30 $95,732 +$20,384 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 86¢ $630 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 6h
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 6h
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY No 91¢ $502 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $1,633 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,016 15h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,016 27h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,016 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,002 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $2,001 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 88¢ $1,004 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 98¢ $1,001 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 87¢ $1,084 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 80¢ $1,006 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,001 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 99¢ $2,001 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 100¢ $7,200 4d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,231 7d
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro BUY Yes 99¢ $2,001 8d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec SELL Yes $27 8d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes $104 8d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el SELL Yes 96¢ $3,934 8d
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY No 99¢ $3,341 10d
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el BUY Yes 83¢ $3,415 14d
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary BUY Yes 92¢ $3,090 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 89¢ $2,508 15d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 93¢ $2,474 28d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,526 28d
Will Darren Bailey win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary e BUY Yes 99¢ $6,302 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,117.37 · official $7,117.37 (match) · 66 history records