Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B1
0xb104…cd1c
crypto · 21 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$86 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$81 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage30d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$104
14 days−$104
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 51¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 13 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$24 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $18 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. Wuerzburg Jun 11 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. Wuerzburg May 18 $29 +$23 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 57% +$6
sports 43% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 7m
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa SELL Legia Warszawa 100¢ $15 8m
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa BUY Legia Warszawa 76¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $15 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $14 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $14 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $31 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.2% -16.1% 58% 47% -38.0%
≤30d 20 -2.9% -12.1% 60% 50% -30.0%
≤90d 20 -2.9% -12.1% 60% 50% -30.0%
all 20 -2.9% -12.1% 60% 50% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 50% -30.0%
10% -20.6% 50% -36.7%
15% -28.2% 30% -42.8%
20% -35.3% 25% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $7.89 · 49 history records