Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B1 0xb102…fb34 world 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-78%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$10
crypto 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-55.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 1 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 2 -51.0% -55.7% 0% 0% -91.9%
all 2 -51.0% -55.7% 0% 0% -91.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.7% 0% -91.9%
10% -59.9% 0% -92.7%
15% -63.8% 0% -93.4%
20% -67.4% 0% -94.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -91% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage38d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.74 (match) · 5 history records