Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0fc…ce0b other 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 387d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,947 (+6%) realized +$11,578 · open +$369
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate62%60W / 36L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,691per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$15,128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$258
7 days+$1,240
14 days+$2,843
30 days+$2,843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$6,028
crypto 27% +$1,418
economics 13% +$1,081
world 12% −$816
finance 10% +$1,296
tech 4% +$2,432
politics 3% +$794
weather 0% −$815
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -29.9% -36.6% 19% 5% +3.7%
≤30d 22 -27.3% -34.2% 23% 9% +8.5%
≤90d 35 -18.4% -26.2% 29% 20% +0.4%
all 96 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 32% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 32% -3.9%
10% -20.5% 12% -13.1%
15% -28.2% 6% -21.5%
20% -35.2% 4% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,944) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$303 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

387d coverage
Net worth$15,128
Realized+$11,578
Unrealized+$369
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses60 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)96 / 116
History coverage387d
Avg bet$1,691
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $8,000 $7,647 −$353 (-4%)
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? No 59¢ 66¢ $5,171 $5,800 +$630 (+12%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $259 $311 +$52 (+20%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $306 $309 +$3 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No 8¢ 10¢ $187 $234 +$47 (+25%)
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? No 52¢ 52¢ $168 $169 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No 71¢ 71¢ $166 $167 +$1 (+0%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $85 $87 +$3 (+3%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 57¢ $69 $66 −$3 (-5%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31? No 18¢ 50¢ $23 $64 +$41 (+177%)
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0010 by December 31, 2026? No 31¢ 33¢ $51 $55 +$3 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 68¢ 100¢ $32 $47 +$15 (+47%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31? No 44¢ 55¢ $31 $38 +$7 (+24%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31? No 21¢ 58¢ $13 $36 +$22 (+172%)
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? No 58¢ 66¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+14%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31? No 54¢ 34¢ $26 $16 −$9 (-36%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31? No 64¢ 54¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $85 $3 −$81 (-96%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 27 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 27 $121 −$18 -15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 27 $670 −$274 -41%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 26 $725 +$40 +6%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by December 31? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 25 $243 −$1 -0%
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Jun 25 $1,728 +$6 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $332 −$276 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $420 −$328 -78%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 24 $410 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 25? Jun 24 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 25? Jun 24 $43 −$42 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25? Jun 23 $173 −$166 -96%
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 23 $244 −$2 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 23 $1,852 −$279 -15%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 23 $411 −$310 -76%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 23 $908 +$2,947 +325%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $201 −$57 -28%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $5,769 +$1,603 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? May 23 $280 −$2 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO May 21 $237 +$48 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? May 20 $158 −$36 -23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 15 $3,497 +$906 +26%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on May 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 01 $1,549 −$389 -25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $143 −$63 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 23 $2,948 −$422 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 17 $654 +$118 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 12 $233 −$58 -25%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 12 $1,216 $0 -0%
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $1,830 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 01 $1,414 +$169 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Mar 27 $736 +$64 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Mar 27 $28 +$4 +16%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Mar 27 $2,670 +$17 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Mar 23 $1,164 +$12 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 13 $5,797 −$2,307 -40%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jan 13 $1,480 −$295 -20%
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026? Jan 06 $1,724 +$103 +6%
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? Jan 02 $1,641 +$84 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $2,986 +$354 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $1,731 +$157 +9%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $2,278 +$202 +9%
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? Jan 01 $10,844 +$589 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $1,311 +$141 +11%
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? Dec 30 $483 +$88 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market clos SELL Yes 18¢ $3 5m
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market clos BUY Yes 15¢ $271 7m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL No 10¢ $38 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? SELL No 5¢ $20 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? SELL No 5¢ $5 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? SELL No 6¢ $31 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $8 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 4h
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? SELL No 67¢ $15 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 2¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,127.53 · official $15,126.90 (match) · 3045 history records