Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0fc…b079 crypto 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$507 (-13%) realized −$493 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate80%101W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 32% +$87
other 30% −$618
sports 26% +$12
crypto 12% −$11
tech 1% +$2
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +52.3% +37.8% 100% 67% +30.4%
≤30d 4 +39.8% +26.5% 100% 50% +1.1%
≤90d 60 -2.6% -11.8% 80% 27% -24.8%
all 127 -5.6% -14.6% 80% 31% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 31% -21.6%
10% -22.8% 17% -29.1%
15% -30.2% 9% -36.0%
20% -37.1% 5% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$33 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$493
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses101 / 26
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage241d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 87¢ 57¢ $40 $26 −$14 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 17 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) May 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 03 $20 +$2 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 03 $517 +$93 +18%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 13 $458 +$2 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $570 −$570 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 11 $527 +$4 +1%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 10? Apr 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 8? Apr 08 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$1 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 08 $203 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 08 $5 $0 +3%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Flavio Cobolli vs Francisco Comesana Apr 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 08 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 06 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 05 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 05 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 05 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 05 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 04 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 04 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 04 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 04 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 03 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 03 $5 $0 +3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 03 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 03 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 03 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 02 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 34d
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) BUY Pistons 77¢ $5 38d
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) BUY Lakers 55¢ $10 46d
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 51d
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 88¢ $101 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? BUY No 58¢ $116 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY No 21¢ $18 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY No 21¢ $3 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL No 79¢ $460 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 78¢ $458 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? SELL No 90¢ $410 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? BUY No 88¢ $149 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? BUY No 88¢ $252 69d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 57¢ $570 69d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL Movistar KOI 87¢ $390 70d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL Movistar KOI 87¢ $1 70d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Movistar KOI 86¢ $387 70d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 14¢ $2 70d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 14¢ $20 70d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 14¢ $4 70d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 14¢ $1 70d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 14¢ $1 70d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 14¢ $7 70d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 14¢ $7 70d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SELL SK Gaming 14¢ $70 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.44 · official $26.44 (match) · 406 history records