Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:36:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0f4…6fa9 sports 684 markets active 13h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9,326 (+21%) realized +$9,326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%373W / 496L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day150.9pace
Fees−$488est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,966now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,071
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 723 -19.5% -27.2% 44% 41% -28.4%
≤30d 869 -12.4% -20.7% 43% 41% -17.1%
≤90d 869 -12.4% -20.7% 43% 41% -17.1%
all 869 -12.4% -20.7% 43% 41% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 41% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 34% -25.0%
15% -35.2% 28% -32.3%
20% -41.6% 22% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +21% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$27 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$5,966
Realized+$9,326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses373 / 496
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$488
Open positions0
Markets (closed)869 / 684
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day150.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 869 Trades
no open positions (422 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $227 −$227 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $79 −$79 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 28 $43 −$43 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 28 $89 −$89 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5 Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $128 −$128 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 28 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $121 −$121 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 14¢ $6 12h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 88¢ $11 12h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 88¢ $24 12h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 57¢ $23 13h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 74¢ $11 13h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 74¢ $11 13h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 52¢ $1 13h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 52¢ $2 13h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 52¢ $16 13h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 52¢ $3 13h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 70¢ $11 13h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 46¢ $19 13h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 13h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 31¢ $13 13h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 64¢ $26 13h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 59¢ $24 14h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 14h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 69¢ $14 14h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $2 14h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $1 14h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $1 14h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $8 14h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 69¢ $12 14h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 58¢ $23 14h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $16 14h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $6 14h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $8 14h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 14h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 76¢ $12 14h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,965.50 · official $5,964.31 (match) · 3500 history records