Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0f2…838d other 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 223L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$37
sports 19% −$13
politics 7% −$5
crypto 7% −$5
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$7
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage126d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $608 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $333 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $363 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $319 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $499 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $242 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $151 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $317 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $190 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $186 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $258 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $133 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $118 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $642 −$2 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $188 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $265 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $279 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $132 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $390 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $52 2h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $53 3h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 11h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 12h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 14h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 15h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 21h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 23h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 24h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 26h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 31h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 33h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $53 33h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $53 35h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 36h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 37h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $14 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $33 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.32 · official $52.32 (match) · 1291 history records