Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0ef…39b6 sports 847 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 128d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,904 (-14%) realized −$17,535 · open −$369
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate82%691W / 150L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$42
30 days+$505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$1,475
other 22% −$8,110
culture 16% +$16
politics 3% −$2,235
world 0% −$258
economics 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 20 +36.1% +23.2% 100% 5% -2.5%
≤90d 129 +15.9% +4.9% 86% 52% -20.1%
all 841 -0.2% -9.7% 82% 29% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 29% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 21% -25.8%
15% -26.2% 15% -33.0%
20% -33.5% 4% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$126 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$1,973
Realized−$17,535
Unrealized−$369
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses691 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)841 / 847
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$151
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 841 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $1,031 +$6 +1%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $234 +$3 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $781 +$6 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 16 $116 +$1 +1%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top global Netflix movie th Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $312 +$4 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $128 +$1 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $303 +$3 +1%
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $245 +$5 +2%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $59 +$1 +2%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 global Netflix movie thi Jun 09 $345 +$3 +1%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $362 +$4 +1%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $216 +$1 +0%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $331 +$3 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $56 +$391 +698%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $910 +$38 +4%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $870 +$34 +4%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 19 $153 +$2 +1%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this we May 19 $422 +$11 +3%
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this wee May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week May 19 $254 +$7 +3%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee May 19 $241 +$4 +2%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 19 $447 +$25 +6%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this wee May 19 $202 +$3 +2%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $64 +$6 +9%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $154 +$146 +95%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee May 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this w May 13 $241 +$6 +2%
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 13 $1,326 +$32 +2%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 global Netflix show this w May 11 $93 +$3 +4%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 11 $389 +$8 +2%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 11 $1,077 +$27 +2%
Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 04 $807 +$31 +4%
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 04 $5 $0 +8%
Will "Apex" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 04 $75 +$1 +1%
Will "Apex" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 04 $628 +$3 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5 Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 28 $374 −$272 -73%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026 Apr 28 $3,450 −$2,019 -58%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 28 $217 −$175 -81%
Devils vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5 Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 Apr 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5 Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 107.5 Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the #2 US Ne Apr 27 $4 +$1 +27%
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Apr 27 $51 +$3 +6%
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Apr 27 $106 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 98¢ $34 1h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 98¢ $243 1h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $167 1h
Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be BUY No 100¢ $98 1h
Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be BUY No 99¢ $302 1h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee BUY Yes 100¢ $229 1h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $124 1h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $141 1h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $278 1h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $248 1h
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this wee BUY Yes 99¢ $58 1h
Will "Maternal Instinct" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $153 1h
Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be BUY No 98¢ $74 1h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 98¢ $127 1h
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 93¢ $36 1h
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $155 7d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7d
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 7d
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $19 7d
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 7d
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $255 7d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 99¢ $27 7d
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 99¢ $329 7d
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 99¢ $15 7d
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 7d
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $437 7d
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top global Netflix movie th BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi BUY No 99¢ $116 7d
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $269 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,972.87 · official $1,971.81 (match) · 3500 history records