Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:49:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb0ee…2e1d sports 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$517 (-3%) realized −$518 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%44W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$328est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days+$106
14 days−$1,361
30 days−$757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$401
other 12% −$342
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.5% -3.6% 41% 41% -2.5%
≤30d 117 -1.7% -11.0% 38% 38% -13.5%
≤90d 117 -1.7% -11.0% 38% 38% -13.5%
all 117 -1.7% -11.0% 38% 38% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 38% -13.5%
10% -19.6% 37% -21.8%
15% -27.3% 36% -29.3%
20% -34.5% 35% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$115 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$518
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses44 / 73
Est. fees paid−$328
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage30d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Cabo Verde 1¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $79 −$58 -73%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $16 $0 -2%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $82 −$41 -50%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $86 +$83 +97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $81 +$139 +172%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $83 +$50 +60%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 18 $76 +$95 +125%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $172 −$172 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $82 −$43 -52%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $89 +$113 +127%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 17 $85 −$45 -52%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $83 −$72 -86%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $89 +$134 +152%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $93 +$87 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $79 −$13 -16%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $78 +$8 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$79 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $80 −$40 -50%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 14 $87 −$85 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $95 −$94 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 14 $91 +$96 +105%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $69 −$68 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $188 −$188 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $180 +$174 +97%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $179 −$120 -67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $166 +$180 +108%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $178 −$116 -65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 09 $167 −$167 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 09 $133 −$13 -10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $156 −$134 -86%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $188 −$188 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $202 −$202 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 08 $99 −$5 -5%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $204 −$200 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $183 −$179 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $180 −$177 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $180 +$186 +103%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $174 +$257 +148%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $195 −$150 -77%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $43 +$47 +108%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $194 −$112 -58%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $187 −$187 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $17 +$22 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 10¢ $22 16m
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 5¢ $16 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 35¢ $79 1h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 5¢ $16 2h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 1¢ $3 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 21¢ $38 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $45 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $40 46h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $86 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 83¢ $133 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $83 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $81 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $82 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 87¢ $0 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 87¢ $14 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 87¢ $17 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 87¢ $17 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 87¢ $1 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 87¢ $17 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 87¢ $87 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) SELL Baltimore Orioles 87¢ $17 3d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 38¢ $76 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 44¢ $50 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 44¢ $22 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 44¢ $46 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 44¢ $19 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 44¢ $10 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 44¢ $20 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 44¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.24 · official $4.24 (match) · 389 history records