Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0ee…5e87 crypto 470 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,049 (-9%) realized −$1,866 · open −$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%224W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$240
7 days−$240
14 days−$240
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$744
world 14% −$1,404
other 4% −$239
sports 2% −$273
finance 0% −$31
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -87.6% -88.8% 0% 0% -88.8%
≤30d 1 -87.6% -88.8% 0% 0% -88.8%
≤90d 408 -16.0% -24.0% 46% 40% -23.1%
all 467 -11.2% -19.7% 48% 41% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 41% -20.3%
10% -27.4% 31% -28.0%
15% -34.4% 24% -34.9%
20% -40.8% 16% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$29 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized−$1,866
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses224 / 243
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)467 / 470
History coverage109d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $210 $208 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $180 $1 −$179 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $274 −$240 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 12 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 12 $46 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 12 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 12 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 12 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 12 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 12 $40 −$21 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 12 $81 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 12 $13 +$8 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 12 $40 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 12 $132 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 12 $13 −$11 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 12 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 12 $21 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 12 $60 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 12 $13 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 12 $46 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 12 $35 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 10 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 10 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $19 −$12 -62%
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 41m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $92 53m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $92 56m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $274 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $216 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $308 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 70d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 70d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $19 72d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $22 72d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $53 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.56 · official $506.56 (match) · 2009 history records