Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0ea…5843 crypto 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-2%) realized −$55 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate33%56W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$20
14 days+$11
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$5
crypto 16% −$27
weather 12% −$9
other 12% −$38
politics 5% −$11
finance 4% −$36
sports 3% +$38
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +13.0% +2.2% 44% 28% -6.1%
≤30d 123 +4.8% -5.2% 37% 20% -10.4%
≤90d 123 +4.8% -5.2% 37% 20% -10.4%
all 172 -9.6% -18.2% 33% 16% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 16% -12.0%
10% -26.0% 13% -20.4%
15% -33.2% 11% -28.1%
20% -39.7% 9% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses56 / 116
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)172 / 177
History coverage617d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 14¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 7¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-86%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $34 −$2 -6%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +305%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 15 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 15 $13 $0 +4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$9 +108%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $16 +$6 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 -14%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 14 $29 −$11 -39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 12 $19 −$6 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 12 $21 +$14 +65%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $37 +$12 +31%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -37%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup Jun 12 $38 +$2 +6%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $17 −$3 -16%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $26 −$2 -7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $43 $0 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $56 −$7 -12%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$2 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $482 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on June Jun 06 $40 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$2 +72%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 3? Jun 03 $33 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3? Jun 03 $14 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% an Jun 03 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $28 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 12¢ $1 3h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL Yes 41¢ $12 4h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor SELL Yes 34¢ $3 4h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 34¢ $3 4h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL Yes 49¢ $20 4h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 48¢ $24 4h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 81¢ $38 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 29¢ $1 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 29¢ $13 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $37 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 28¢ $13 13h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $9 16h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 16h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 16h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 16h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 16h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 17h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 17h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 15¢ $5 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $3 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $11 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $9 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.49 · official $17.49 (match) · 569 history records