Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B0 0xb0e3…29eb sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$65,157 (+15%) realized +$66,455 · open −$1,298
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate71%89W / 37L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$3,160per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$522est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$4,625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36,902
7 days+$46,079
14 days+$51,511
30 days+$51,511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$35,873
sports 49% +$38,451
world 1% −$3,602
crypto 0% +$1,960
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +16.4% +5.3% 78% 56% +8.8%
≤30d 67 +18.6% +7.3% 78% 57% +9.9%
≤90d 80 +7.8% -2.4% 68% 50% +1.9%
all 126 +17.2% +6.1% 71% 60% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 60% +6.5%
10% ← realistic here -4.1% 53% -3.7%
15% -13.3% 44% -13.0%
20% -21.8% 36% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$3,701) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,695 vs −$2,077 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$4,625
Realized+$66,455
Unrealized−$1,298
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses89 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$522
Open positions8
Markets (closed)126 / 134
History coverage191d
Avg bet$3,160
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,445 $960 −$484 (-34%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 42¢ 50¢ $703 $837 +$134 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,092 $830 −$262 (-24%)
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals No 94¢ 98¢ $638 $667 +$29 (+5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $828 $656 −$172 (-21%)
Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals No 94¢ 52¢ $793 $438 −$355 (-45%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $225 $88 −$137 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 28 $3,771 +$178 +5%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 28 $895 +$703 +79%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 28 $10,284 +$1,832 +18%
Luis Díaz: 3+ goals Jun 28 $2,164 +$58 +3%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 28 $21,405 +$884 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,986 +$4,214 +106%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 27 $1,803 +$929 +52%
Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals Jun 27 $6,150 +$100 +2%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals Jun 27 $955 +$106 +11%
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals Jun 27 $198 +$16 +8%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 27 $502 +$62 +12%
Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals Jun 27 $258 +$10 +4%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $3,528 +$2,772 +79%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $706 −$706 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $12,475 +$5,112 +41%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 27 $1,315 +$590 +45%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 27 $14,787 +$1,262 +8%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $518 +$1,332 +257%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 27 $9,810 +$190 +2%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 27 $142 +$17 +12%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $7,504 +$3,926 +52%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $788 +$473 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,336 −$1,336 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 26 $3,550 +$1,450 +41%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $4,986 +$6,157 +124%
Michael Olise: 3+ goals Jun 26 $278 +$8 +3%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $2,024 +$506 +25%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 26 $834 +$31 +4%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 26 $14,602 +$998 +7%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $3,450 −$3,450 -100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $12,022 +$8,552 +71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,153 +$1,218 +29%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Jun 26 $2,501 +$549 +22%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Jun 26 $123 +$9 +7%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 26 $98 +$70 +71%
Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals Jun 26 $1,494 +$77 +5%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 25 $203 −$203 -100%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals Jun 25 $45 +$10 +24%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals Jun 25 $86 +$73 +85%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals Jun 25 $26 +$2 +6%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1,561 +$957 +61%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $3,520 +$2,880 +82%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7,421 −$7,421 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3,500 +$3,500 +100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8,625 +$1,066 +12%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 24 $1,308 −$1,308 -100%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $4,130 −$4,130 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $793 46m
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $638 47m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $17 47m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $263 48m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $408 48m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $11 49m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 52m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 93¢ $133 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 93¢ $46 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 93¢ $24 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 93¢ $33 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 93¢ $21 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 93¢ $53 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $530 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $623 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $57 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $57 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $208 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $75 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $16 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $20 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $6 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $57 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $85 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $95 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $6 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $14 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $197 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $463 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $89 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,625.38 · official $4,625.38 (match) · 1838 history records