Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0e2…5818 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+5%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +6.6% -3.5% 42% 42% -20.4%
≤30d 19 +6.6% -3.5% 42% 42% -20.4%
≤90d 19 +6.6% -3.5% 42% 42% -20.4%
all 19 +6.6% -3.5% 42% 42% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 42% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 42% -28.0%
15% -21.2% 37% -35.0%
20% -28.9% 26% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$9 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records