Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0db…a1d0 other 17 markets active 12h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-4%) realized +$0 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$17
sports 21% +$12
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +50.5% +36.1% 57% 57% -11.1%
≤30d 7 +50.5% +36.1% 57% 57% -11.1%
≤90d 7 +50.5% +36.1% 57% 57% -11.1%
all 7 +50.5% +36.1% 57% 57% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.1% 57% -11.1%
10% +23.1% 57% -19.6%
15% +11.2% 57% -27.3%
20% +0.3% 43% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)7 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +414%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $12 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 61¢ $5 16h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $7 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 36h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 36h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 36h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 36h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 36h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 36h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 36h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 36h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 36h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $12 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.46 · official $86.46 (match) · 22 history records