Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B0 0xb0d2…ab03 sports 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,607 (-15%) realized −$1,564 · open −$43
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%28W / 16L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$283
7 days−$277
14 days−$985
30 days−$1,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,152
other 14% +$16
finance 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +7.4% -2.8% 60% 60% -18.5%
≤30d 44 +3.5% -6.4% 64% 64% -19.1%
≤90d 44 +3.5% -6.4% 64% 64% -19.1%
all 44 +3.5% -6.4% 64% 64% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 64% -19.1%
10% -15.4% 50% -26.9%
15% -23.5% 39% -34.0%
20% -31.0% 27% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$241 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,564
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses28 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage17d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 42¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 0.5 Rounds AND UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Wel Jun 27 $80 +$107 +134%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Egypt v Jun 27 $100 +$183 +183%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Jun 27 $114 +$86 +76%
Senegal to win the second half? Jun 26 $98 +$16 +16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $111 −$109 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Japan vs. Swed Jun 26 $104 +$105 +100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $173 −$170 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $161 −$161 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg Jun 24 $51 +$52 +103%
Will Jefferies (JEF) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 24 $17 −$12 -70%
ITF Alkmaar: Johan Oscar Lien vs Manel Lazaro Juncadella Jun 24 $96 −$79 -82%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $85 +$10 +12%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 To Jun 24 $55 +$31 +57%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $37 +$18 +48%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $153 −$116 -76%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $502 −$497 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $345 +$157 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $186 +$160 +86%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $97 −$97 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $244 +$39 +16%
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 20 $1,308 −$1,302 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,117 +$191 +17%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $701 +$416 +59%
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $620 +$82 +13%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $224 +$47 +21%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $251 +$125 +50%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $348 +$100 +29%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -99%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $34 +$8 +24%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $45 −$10 -23%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$10 +28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $581 −$576 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 14 $404 −$227 -56%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $511 +$296 +58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $336 +$175 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $162 +$174 +107%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $105 +$57 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $76 +$30 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $58 +$18 +30%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $39 +$19 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $211 −$172 -82%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $140 −$139 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 11 $106 +$35 +33%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Denis Petak vs Daniel Siniakov Jun 11 $141 −$140 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $44 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Team to Take First Corner AND Will England win on 2 BUY 63¢ $147 7h
O/U 0.5 Rounds AND UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Wel BUY 42¢ $80 18h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Egypt v BUY 35¢ $100 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi SELL 99¢ $200 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi BUY 55¢ $114 25h
Senegal to win the second half? BUY Yes 86¢ $98 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $111 41h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Japan vs. Swed BUY 49¢ $104 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $173 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $161 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg BUY 49¢ $51 3d
Will Jefferies (JEF) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Jefferies (JEF) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 80¢ $17 3d
ITF Alkmaar: Johan Oscar Lien vs Manel Lazaro Juncadella SELL Johan Oscar Lien 15¢ $17 3d
ITF Alkmaar: Johan Oscar Lien vs Manel Lazaro Juncadella BUY Johan Oscar Lien 79¢ $96 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $85 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 To BUY 63¢ $55 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $55 4d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $37 4d
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL FOKUS 17¢ $37 4d
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 68¢ $153 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $502 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $345 5d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 84¢ $97 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $186 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $244 6d
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,308 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1,117 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,116 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 81 history records