Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb0d0…10a3 other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$210 (+6%) realized +$209 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%48W / 16L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$186
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$191
crypto 19% +$11
tech 5% +$5
politics 2% +$4
sports 2% +$46
world 2% −$58
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +31.3% +18.8% 78% 72% +6.9%
≤30d 27 +13.8% +3.0% 63% 59% +0.5%
≤90d 32 +11.9% +1.2% 69% 50% -0.4%
all 64 +7.4% -2.8% 75% 34% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 34% -3.3%
10% -12.1% 28% -12.6%
15% -20.6% 20% -21.0%
20% -28.4% 17% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$546
Realized+$209
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses48 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)64 / 78
History coverage229d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$5 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$24 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$25 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$34 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $51 +$40 +79%
CSUN Matadors vs. Long Beach State Beach Apr 19 $3 $0 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 22? Apr 19 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 2? Feb 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 2? Feb 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 2? Feb 22 $22 +$1 +5%
Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 02 $12 $0 +4%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 02 $15 +$4 +28%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Feb 02 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 02 $30 +$3 +9%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 02 $40 $0 +1%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Feb 02 $142 +$10 +7%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on November 19? Nov 30 $22 +$5 +25%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Nov 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Nov 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Nov 13 $79 $0 +0%
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential elec Nov 12 $60 +$3 +4%
Will NVIDIA reach $268 in November? Nov 12 $15 −$5 -33%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on November 11? Nov 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 8? Nov 11 $40 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $50 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $546.05 · official $546.06 (match) · 141 history records