Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0cf…01fc other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$16
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$20
crypto 11% +$36
sports 6% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.6% -26.4% 67% 50% -10.6%
≤30d 19 -4.1% -13.2% 58% 47% -11.9%
≤90d 19 -4.1% -13.2% 58% 47% -11.9%
all 19 -4.1% -13.2% 58% 47% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 47% -11.9%
10% -21.5% 21% -20.4%
15% -29.1% 16% -28.1%
20% -36.1% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$28 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage11d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $148 +$4 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $136 +$12 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $96 +$40 +41%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $84 +$12 +14%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $69 −$67 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $185 −$116 -63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $149 +$36 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $131 +$17 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $221 +$37 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $80 +$14 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$9 +475%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$13 -63%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$7 -57%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $152 50m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $148 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $136 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $136 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $96 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $84 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $69 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $69 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $185 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $185 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $149 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $131 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 94¢ $126 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $126 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $95 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $95 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records