Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb0c8…fe7f weather 954 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2805 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,007 (+9%) realized +$10,893 · open −$2,886
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%95W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day2805.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$3,503
tech 29% −$228
weather 27% −$5,553
politics 4% −$1,369
world 2% +$6
sports 1% −$4
culture 0% +$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2805 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -12.5% -20.8% 48% 10% -64.9%
≤30d 198 -12.5% -20.8% 48% 10% -64.9%
≤90d 198 -12.5% -20.8% 48% 10% -64.9%
all 198 -12.5% -20.8% 48% 10% -64.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2805.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 10% -64.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 7% -68.2%
15% -35.3% 6% -71.3%
20% -41.7% 4% -74.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$81 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$10,893
Unrealized−$2,886
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses95 / 103
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions446
Markets (closed)198 / 954
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day2805.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 446 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 9¢ 39¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+329%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $76 $1 −$75 (-99%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $314 $1 −$313 (-100%)
Will William Moses win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $44 $1 −$44 (-98%)
Will David Hughes win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $44 $1 −$44 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $18 $1 −$18 (-97%)
Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Will another outcome occur in the NY-13 Democratic Primary? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-99%)
Will Michael Scanlon be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will Anthony Zimpfer be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will Karen Breslin be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will Brashad Hasley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will Nichole Miner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-99%)
Will Sergio Perez win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Valtteri Bottas win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Liam Lawson win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Will Joshua Griffin win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 29°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -171%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $0 −$1 -594%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -171%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $0 −$1 -234%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$3 -141%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 25? Jun 25 $0 −$1 -594%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$3 -141%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 +$31 +788%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $148 −$148 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 25 $28 +$12 +44%
Will Lance Stroll get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 25 $31 +$9 +28%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pri Jun 25 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 25 $33 +$7 +21%
Will Valtteri Bottas get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hulkenberg get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 25 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix Jun 25 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P Jun 25 $35 +$5 +15%
Will Sergio Perez get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 25? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 25 $11 −$9 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ayo Dosunmu play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 2m
Will Curaçao be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 0¢ $0 2m
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $745 3m
Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on BUY No 100¢ $745 3m
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO da BUY No 100¢ $745 3m
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 3m
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on BUY No 100¢ $745 3m
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on BUY No 100¢ $744 3m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $23 3m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $23 3m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $23 3m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $23 3m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Alexander Albon get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 100¢ $14 8m
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 91¢ $13 8m
Will Sergio Perez get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix BUY No 100¢ $14 8m
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 87¢ $13 8m
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 78¢ $11 8m
Will Lance Stroll get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix BUY No 100¢ $14 8m
Will Liam Lawson get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $14 8m
Will Pierre Gasly get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix BUY No 100¢ $14 8m
Will Arvid Lindblad get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 100¢ $14 8m
Will Valtteri Bottas get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY No 100¢ $14 8m
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pri BUY No 97¢ $14 8m
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 81¢ $12 8m
Will Isack Hadjar get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix BUY No 100¢ $14 8m
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix BUY No 96¢ $14 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.01 · official $43.03 (match) · 3500 history records