Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B0 0xb0c6…e468 world 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%42W / 58L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$3
other 8% +$6
politics 2% −$9
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 33 -3.4% -12.6% 39% 0% -9.6%
all 100 -1.7% -11.1% 42% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage469d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $117 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $190 −$4 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $166 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $217 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $305 −$12 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $403 +$16 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $201 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $177 −$19 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $165 +$13 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $31 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $314 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $199 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $15 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $17 −$3 -17%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $269 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $327 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $165 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $108 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $179 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $102 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $233 +$6 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $8 −$1 -16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $1,067 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 13 $1,066 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $18 −$7 -38%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $1,072 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $12 −$6 -50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $1,183 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $1,482 +$1 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Dec 13 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $11 $0 +3%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 22 $11 $0 -1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $85 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $117 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $61 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $58 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $88 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $72 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $95 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $96 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $59 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $63 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $32 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $115 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $115 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 19¢ $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $64 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $91 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $190 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 453 history records