Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0c6…7bef crypto 786 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$471 (-2%) realized −$471 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%384W / 402L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days−$291
14 days−$62
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,084
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -5.2% -14.2% 52% 52% -18.0%
≤30d 475 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 47% -9.8%
≤90d 786 -1.4% -10.8% 49% 48% -14.0%
all 786 -1.4% -10.8% 49% 48% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 48% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 48% -22.3%
15% -27.1% 48% -29.8%
20% -34.3% 46% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$471
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses384 / 402
Open positions0
Markets (closed)786 / 786
History coverage43d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 786 Trades
no open positions (343 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$21 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$10 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$38 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $76 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$33 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$8 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$8 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$10 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$25 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$30 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $77 +$49 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$30 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$26 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$19 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $61 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $64 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1878 history records