Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B0 0xb0c3…38bc crypto 436 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,621 (-5%) realized −$4,616 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate70%305W / 129L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$5
14 days−$1,065
30 days−$653
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$3,934
other 27% +$674
sports 19% −$707
crypto 9% −$835
politics 3% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -18.0% -25.8% 62% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 106 -3.8% -12.9% 80% 19% -11.4%
≤90d 431 -5.6% -14.6% 70% 16% -15.0%
all 434 -5.5% -14.5% 70% 16% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 16% -13.8%
10% -22.7% 7% -22.1%
15% -30.2% 5% -29.6%
20% -37.0% 3% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$66 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$4,616
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses305 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)434 / 436
History coverage110d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 68¢ $133 $128 −$5 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $200 +$11 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $241 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $234 +$23 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $206 +$12 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $137 +$5 +3%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $52 −$43 -82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $54 −$7 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$16 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $42 +$1 +2%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $41 +$1 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $9 −$2 -16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +14%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 −$17 -69%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $446 −$421 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $445 +$1 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $439 +$6 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $431 +$8 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$3 -9%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $389 +$14 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $417 +$8 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 +$7 +49%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $403 +$2 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $352 +$51 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $88 +$13 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $347 +$7 +2%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $347 +$1 +0%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $327 +$20 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $567 +$97 +17%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$3 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $106 +$11 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $296 +$6 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $285 +$11 +4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $285 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $282 +$2 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $272 +$11 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $267 +$4 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $249 +$18 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $188 +$61 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $619 −$438 -71%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $619 +$7 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $473 +$146 +31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $45 +$57 +126%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $43 +$4 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $205 −$163 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $73 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $37 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $37 19h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $21 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $3 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $5 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $3 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $23 20h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $95 22h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No $0 30h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No $0 30h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 30h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $71 41h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $129 41h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $245 42h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $241 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $240 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $217 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $218 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $206 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $19 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.44 · official $197.54 (match) · 2725 history records