Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B0 0xb0be…9164 other 9 markets active 3h ago coverage 68d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$20 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$176
14 days−$176
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$177
other 25% −$133
world 7% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -42.4% -47.9% 25% 0% -49.4%
≤30d 5 -31.6% -38.1% 40% 20% -21.5%
≤90d 7 +22.2% +10.5% 43% 29% -9.6%
all 7 +22.2% +10.5% 43% 29% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 29% -9.6%
10% -0.0% 14% -18.2%
15% -9.7% 14% -26.1%
20% -18.6% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$119 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage68d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $130 $131 +$1 (+1%)
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $89 $78 −$11 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$54 -53%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$60 -58%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $90 +$9 +10%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$71 -69%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $499 +$57 +12%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $99 +$411 +413%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $300 −$293 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 16¢ $91 2h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $43 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $132 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $99 9h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $32 10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $90 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 4d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 4d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 4d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $211 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 49¢ $345 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $499 15d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $510 35d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $99 36d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $300 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.56 · official $209.56 (match) · 21 history records