Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb0b4…fa63 crypto 789 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$392 (-2%) realized −$339 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%376W / 408L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days−$683
14 days−$515
30 days−$1,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$771
sports 29% −$74
other 19% −$374
world 0% −$29
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -30.9% -37.4% 38% 38% -21.6%
≤30d 282 -18.3% -26.1% 45% 44% -18.2%
≤90d 613 -15.4% -23.4% 47% 46% -14.7%
all 784 -13.4% -21.6% 48% 46% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 46% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 41% -22.8%
15% -36.0% 32% -30.3%
20% -42.3% 24% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$339
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses376 / 408
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions5
Markets (closed)784 / 789
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 784 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 53¢ 50¢ $117 $110 −$8 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 13¢ $28 $5 −$23 (-84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$50 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$93 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$29 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$162 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$14 +50%
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $35 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $92 −$89 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $69 +$22 +32%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $300 +$289 +96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $7 −$1 -20%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 10 $247 −$245 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $283 −$283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $317 +$84 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $399 +$216 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $145 −$141 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $120 +$56 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $133 +$43 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $29 +$16 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $133 +$50 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $114 +$70 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $109 +$69 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $121 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $50 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $29 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $49 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $57 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $152 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $59 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $30 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $17 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $52 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $12 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $27 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.41 · official $166.19 · 3500 history records