Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B0 0xb0a2…353a sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 355d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32,049 (-6%) realized −$33,345 · open +$1,296
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%22W / 33L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,205per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3,215est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$11,296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,699
7 days+$47,260
14 days−$19,706
30 days−$19,706
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$37,374
sports 33% +$12,496
crypto 4% +$6,469
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +17.6% +6.4% 43% 43% +2.1%
≤30d 55 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 40% -12.9%
≤90d 55 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 40% -12.9%
all 55 +1.0% -8.6% 40% 40% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 40% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 40% -21.2%
15% -25.3% 40% -28.9%
20% -32.6% 36% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$10,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,884 vs −$5,853 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

355d coverage
Net worth$11,296
Realized−$33,345
Unrealized+$1,296
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses22 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$3,215
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 59
History coverage355d
Avg bet$9,205
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $10,000 $11,296 +$1,296 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $48,755 −$8,687 -18%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $3,578 −$2,924 -82%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $16,332 +$14,630 +90%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $6,117 −$6,000 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10,117 +$6,276 +62%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 26 $3,485 −$3,400 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $5,096 +$8,804 +173%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $862 −$842 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $9,287 −$1,371 -15%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8,083 −$7,900 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $11,749 +$5,166 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9,854 +$8,146 +83%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $2,962 +$7,038 +238%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $8,955 +$9,045 +101%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $4,228 −$1,799 -42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7,148 +$10,852 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4,312 −$611 -14%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,026 −$378 -37%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $13,140 +$7,172 +55%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $2,603 −$2,555 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $7,391 −$2,061 -28%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,662 +$10,338 +388%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $10,298 +$4,702 +46%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria Jun 23 $10,000 +$25,897 +259%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5,133 −$5,036 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $99,862 −$5,856 -6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25,447 −$25,447 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $7,423 −$7,300 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $19,976 +$12,889 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $848 −$800 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $339 +$396 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $203 +$374 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $422 −$398 -94%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $25,839 −$25,567 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,080 +$7,932 +194%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $8,128 −$7,980 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $5,090 −$5,000 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $3,667 +$4,000 +109%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16,210 +$8,838 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7,462 −$7,350 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15,762 +$11,538 +73%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $4,233 −$4,171 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8,085 −$7,905 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,922 −$4,800 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $858 −$840 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,117 −$3,074 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9,244 −$9,166 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,165 −$3,120 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $10,219 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 71¢ $8,070 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 29¢ $13,852 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 5¢ $654 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $5,070 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 52¢ $14,948 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20,288 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $8,115 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $15,326 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 26¢ $528 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 26¢ $3,049 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $8,217 17h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $6,117 28h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 17¢ $3,485 30h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 8¢ $1,496 31h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will BUY 14¢ $996 31h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 37¢ $2,547 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10,117 35h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $2,549 40h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Por BUY 21¢ $2,982 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 0¢ $20 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $7,917 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $3,377 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 12¢ $862 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $9,287 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 96¢ $7,308 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 96¢ $10 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 96¢ $3,096 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 96¢ $1,701 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 96¢ $4,523 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,296.30 · official $11,296.30 (match) · 281 history records