trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | -12.8% | -21.1% | 50% | 50% | -52.6% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -7.0% | -15.8% | 50% | 50% | -44.4% |
| ≤90d | 25 | -13.5% | -21.7% | 48% | 40% | -30.1% |
| all | 26 | -16.8% | -24.7% | 46% | 38% | -30.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -24.7% | 38% | -30.3% |
| 10% | -31.9% | 38% | -37.0% |
| 15% | -38.5% | 38% | -43.1% |
| 20% | -44.5% | 35% | -48.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 7¢ | $238 | $164 | −$75 (-31%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 66¢ | 66¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $21 | +$16 | +76% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $20 | +$13 | +62% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $20 | +$10 | +51% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $10 | +$6 | +57% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $30 | +$21 | +70% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 15 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jun 15 | $109 | −$50 | -46% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jun 15 | $84 | −$84 | -100% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 15 | $65 | −$65 | -100% |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | Jun 15 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Jun 15 | $120 | −$120 | -100% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $20 | +$19 | +93% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $20 | +$12 | +57% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 11 | $20 | −$1 | -5% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 26 | $40 | +$29 | +73% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | Apr 09 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET | Apr 07 | $18 | −$1 | -6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | Apr 06 | $50 | −$31 | -62% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | Apr 03 | $592 | −$592 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | Apr 02 | $150 | −$150 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | Apr 02 | $570 | +$39 | +7% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | Apr 01 | $307 | +$262 | +86% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | Mar 31 | $217 | +$90 | +42% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET | Mar 30 | $198 | +$18 | +9% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Feb 01 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |