Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B0 0xb09f…0629 world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$88 (+1%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%41W / 53L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$3
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$83
other 17% +$10
finance 2% −$5
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 32 +1.0% -8.6% 47% 3% -8.7%
≤90d 40 +1.2% -8.4% 48% 5% -8.9%
all 94 +0.0% -9.5% 44% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -8.9%
10% -18.1% 2% -17.6%
15% -26.1% 2% -25.5%
20% -33.3% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses41 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage460d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $226 +$3 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $115 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $60 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $223 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $336 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $321 −$3 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $59 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $199 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $67 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $571 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $179 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $123 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $413 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1,544 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $200 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $434 +$6 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $105 +$4 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $18 −$3 -14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $142 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $65 −$5 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $139 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $212 −$5 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $8 +$1 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $23 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $218 −$13 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $230 −$13 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $167 +$89 +54%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1,081 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $108 +$13 +12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $14 +$1 +8%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 12 $16 +$1 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $1,452 +$5 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $8 $0 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $1,310 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 12 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $225 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $228 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $229 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $226 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $115 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $70 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $45 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $32 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $27 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $29 45h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $214 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $214 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $18 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $197 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $219 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $151 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $151 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $59 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.88 · official $2.87 (match) · 399 history records