Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B0 0xb09e…4cf1 other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$5 (+10%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 234d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$2
crypto 39% +$4
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -4.2%
≤30d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -4.2%
≤90d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -4.2%
all 5 +57.7% +42.7% 60% 40% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.7% 40% +7.9%
10% +29.0% 40% -2.4%
15% +16.5% 40% -11.9%
20% +5.1% 20% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)5 / 27
History coverage234d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27? Oct 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 October 20-26? Oct 27 $1 +$4 +440%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 14m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 14m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 14m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 14m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 15m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 15m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 15m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 15m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 25m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 25m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 26m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 26m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 26m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 26m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 26m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27? BUY Up 94¢ $16 232d
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27? BUY Down 6¢ $1 232d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 October 20-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 233d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.50 · official $24.49 (match) · 32 history records