Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb095…8cd5 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$320 (-19%) realized −$320 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$130
14 days+$130
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$322
sports 21% +$101
world 6% −$59
finance 4% −$2
economics 2% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +147.6% +124.0% 100% 100% +111.5%
≤30d 2 +147.6% +124.0% 100% 100% +111.5%
≤90d 22 -21.0% -28.5% 32% 27% -26.2%
all 24 -22.9% -30.2% 33% 29% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 29% -27.5%
10% -36.9% 25% -34.5%
15% -43.0% 21% -40.8%
20% -48.6% 21% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$45 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage93d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $38 +$82 +213%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $59 +$48 +82%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 02 $54 −$10 -19%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 31 $435 −$276 -64%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 31 $234 +$55 +23%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 31 $5 −$1 -26%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 31 $13 −$12 -91%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 29 $5 +$6 +122%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Mar 29 $42 +$2 +6%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 29 $19 −$15 -80%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $21 −$13 -64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 29 $100 +$60 +60%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 27 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 25 $238 −$194 -82%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 24 $126 +$145 +115%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $24 −$22 -91%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 23 $22 −$14 -63%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 20 $32 −$32 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 19 $9 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $61 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $9 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $29 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $107 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $17 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 64¢ $24 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 38¢ $4 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 39¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $6 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $43 78d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 15¢ $7 80d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 72¢ $21 80d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 15¢ $78 80d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 72¢ $261 80d
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 74¢ $7 80d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 16¢ $16 80d
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? SELL No 50¢ $4 80d
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No $1 80d
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $13 81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 67¢ $6 81d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 53¢ $35 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 82d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL Yes 18¢ $45 82d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 54¢ $32 82d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $55 82d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $4 82d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam SELL Natus Vincere $8 82d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam BUY Natus Vincere $2 82d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 54¢ $1 82d
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 54¢ $6 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.50 · official $59.50 (match) · 153 history records