Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb091…a41c world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$3
politics 20% +$1
other 19% −$1
crypto 7% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 11% 0% -10.2%
all 33 -2.9% -12.2% 30% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage297d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 45¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $103 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $84 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $42 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $3 −$1 -17%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $2 $0 +7%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 23 $18 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Sep 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 10 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $1 $0 -4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $15 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $40 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $42 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $26 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $12 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $5 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $16 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 19d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $22 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $2 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $17 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records