Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb08c…da7a crypto 1388 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$340 (-4%) realized −$340 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate84%1169W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$10
14 days+$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 +1.9% -7.8% 88% 88% -7.6%
≤30d 308 -1.4% -10.8% 84% 81% -10.1%
≤90d 1388 -2.8% -12.1% 84% 41% -12.9%
all 1388 -2.8% -12.1% 84% 41% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 41% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 15% -21.2%
15% -28.2% 9% -28.9%
20% -35.2% 5% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$340
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1169 / 219
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1388 / 1388
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1388 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.38 · official $3.38 (match) · 3500 history records