Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B0 0xb089…7dc5 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$59 (+10%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%26W / 20L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$18
other 42% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +0.4% -9.2% 57% 50% -0.2%
≤30d 46 +0.4% -9.2% 57% 50% -0.2%
≤90d 46 +0.4% -9.2% 57% 50% -0.2%
all 46 +0.4% -9.2% 57% 50% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 50% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 33% -9.8%
15% -25.8% 20% -18.5%
20% -33.1% 9% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses26 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 −$1 -2%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$3 +37%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +13%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $24 −$1 -5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06 Jun 19 $7 +$2 +22%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 +$3 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 −$7 -67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -78%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $12 +$4 +33%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +314%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +48%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $35 +$12 +34%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$12 -80%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +354%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 −$8 -28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 +$6 +19%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 +$13 +47%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -27%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 84¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $25 1h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7h
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Over 26¢ $2 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $2 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $21 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $35 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $10 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $21 8h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $11 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 96¢ $23 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 90¢ $11 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 65¢ $7 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 65¢ $5 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $10 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $10 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $14 11h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $10 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06 SELL 79¢ $9 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 89¢ $12 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $11 14h
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 SELL Yes 62¢ $13 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06 BUY 64¢ $7 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.81 · official $24.81 (match) · 110 history records