Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B0 0xb083…5f2e politics 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,626 (-1%) realized −$1,626 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%32W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,277per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$29
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$90
other 36% −$95
sports 13% −$1,447
world 3% −$3
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% −$5
crypto 1% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +1.3% -8.4% 10% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -11.1% -19.6% 5% 2% -11.1%
all 140 +2.2% -7.6% 23% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 10% -10.4%
10% -16.4% 10% -18.9%
15% -24.5% 9% -26.8%
20% -31.9% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,644) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$23 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$1,626
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses32 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,277
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $350 $350 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $384 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,340 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $786 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,807 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4,467 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,556 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,754 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5,771 −$7 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,172 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,871 −$3 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 06 $78 −$78 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $77 +$42 +55%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $483 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,164 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,051 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,888 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $4,518 −$5 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $6,805 −$7 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,368 −$3 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $69 +$130 +188%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,308 −$4 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 19 $584 −$2 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,988 −$3 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,672 −$3 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,979 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $3,953 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $2,542 −$3 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $384 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $384 3h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $596 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $597 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $864 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $866 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $558 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $559 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $342 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $343 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $786 5d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $786 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $758 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $759 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $853 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $854 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $350 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,177 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,179 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,156 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,158 11d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,047 11d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,048 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $935 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $937 12d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $933 12d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $934 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $856 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $857 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,040 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.87 · official $349.87 (match) · 476 history records