Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb083…5676 other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-2%) realized −$93 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate85%62W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$3
politics 23% −$1
sports 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$90
other 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 73 -6.1% -15.1% 85% 19% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 19% -12.3%
10% -23.2% 8% -20.7%
15% -30.6% 7% -28.3%
20% -37.4% 5% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses62 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)73 / 81
History coverage633d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $166 $164 −$2 (-1%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rabby launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 98¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Titan launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 94¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March meeti Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Scream 7 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Mar 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? Mar 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Mar 14 $4 $0 +0%
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? Feb 19 $0 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Feb 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Feb 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Feb 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Meta be forced to sell Instagram or WhatsApp in 2025? Feb 19 $1 $0 +20%
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Gam Feb 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Feb 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Microsoft reach $570 in November? Feb 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta reach $780 in November? Feb 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Airbnb (ABNB) close at $105-$110 on the final day of trading of t Feb 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Feb 19 $2 $0 +5%
Iran strike on US military before November? Feb 19 $0 $0 +5%
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $0 $0 +19%
Will Bournemouth beat Southampton? Feb 19 $0 $0 +52%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $0 $0 +28%
2024 October hottest on record? Feb 19 $0 $0 +15%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Feb 19 $0 $0 +59%
Elon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies? Feb 19 $0 $0 +8%
Martin Shkreli jail in 2024? Feb 19 $0 $0 +4%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024? Feb 19 $0 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $375 $0 -0%
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? Nov 18 $0 $0 +18%
No Vance vs. Walz debates before election? Nov 18 $0 $0 +1%
Megaquake in September? Nov 18 $0 $0 +0%
Will Mira Murati join Anthropic? Nov 18 $0 $0 +5%
COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? Nov 18 $0 $0 +5%
Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real? Nov 18 $0 $0 +1%
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? Nov 18 $0 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $124k August 18–24? Nov 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Nov 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16? Nov 18 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18? Nov 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $2,892 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin new all time high in 2024? Aug 22 $0 $0 +70%
Bitcoin above $65,000 on October 4? Aug 22 $0 $0 +64%
Is John McAfee alive? Aug 22 $0 $0 +1%
Bird flu pandemic in 2024? Aug 22 $0 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Aug 22 $0 $0 +3%
Will Biden finish his term? Aug 22 $0 $0 +15%
Another South American country bans X? Aug 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? Aug 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Pittsburgh rally on May 30 Aug 22 $1 $0 +11%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Aug 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? Jun 01 $0 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days May 30 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $168 1h
Will Titan launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 8d
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 8d
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $4 8d
Will Rabby launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 8d
Will Scream 7 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 103d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March meeti BUY No 100¢ $4 126d
Will Scream 7 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 126d
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? BUY No 100¢ $3 126d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $4 126d
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $4 126d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 126d
Will Airbnb (ABNB) close at $105-$110 on the final day of trading of t BUY No 98¢ $1 219d
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Gam BUY No 98¢ $1 219d
Will Base launch a token in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $2 219d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 November 10-16? BUY No 95¢ $2 221d
Will Microsoft reach $570 in November? BUY No 99¢ $1 221d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18? BUY Yes 55¢ $90 221d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $1 221d
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 98¢ $1 221d
Will Meta reach $780 in November? BUY No 99¢ $1 221d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $1 257d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $721 257d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $722 257d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $722 257d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $723 257d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $723 257d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $723 257d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $723 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.14 · official $196.14 (match) · 281 history records