Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B0 0xb07e…2b92 sports 169 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$637 (-3%) realized +$1,216 · open −$1,853
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%46W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$9,426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,413
other 16% −$740
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -48.2% -53.1% 30% 20% -39.2%
≤30d 20 -48.2% -53.1% 30% 20% -39.2%
≤90d 94 -13.1% -21.4% 49% 34% -19.4%
all 94 -13.1% -21.4% 49% 34% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 34% -19.4%
10% -28.9% 28% -27.2%
15% -35.8% 21% -34.2%
20% -42.1% 14% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$74 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$9,426
Realized+$1,216
Unrealized−$1,853
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses46 / 48
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions75
Markets (closed)94 / 169
History coverage64d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 75 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 44¢ 63¢ $321 $457 +$136 (+42%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? No 69¢ 100¢ $249 $361 +$112 (+45%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $214 $319 +$105 (+49%)
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Iraq 83¢ 98¢ $250 $297 +$47 (+19%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 48¢ $250 $263 +$14 (+6%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Iraq 52¢ 55¢ $250 $262 +$12 (+5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $250 $256 +$6 (+3%)
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Norway 98¢ 100¢ $250 $254 +$4 (+2%)
Argentina leading at halftime? No 50¢ 50¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 59¢ 60¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 81¢ 81¢ $249 $251 +$2 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $249 $250 +$1 (+0%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 84¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Algeria 80¢ 80¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $248 $247 −$2 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $250 $243 −$7 (-3%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Under 49¢ 78¢ $154 $240 +$87 (+57%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $222 $220 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Senegal 22¢ 23¢ $199 $208 +$9 (+5%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Under 82¢ 95¢ $175 $202 +$27 (+16%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 100¢ $185 $194 +$9 (+5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 97¢ 96¢ $189 $188 −$1 (-0%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? No 87¢ 88¢ $186 $187 +$1 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Under 98¢ 98¢ $172 $172 −$0 (-0%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 40¢ $250 $161 −$89 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $251 +$15 +6%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $236 +$106 +45%
ITF Tauste: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar vs Vaishnavi Adkar Jun 16 $245 −$245 -100%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $113 −$113 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $689 −$186 -27%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $75 +$14 +18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $22 +$10 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $222 −$222 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $553 −$374 -68%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $225 −$143 -63%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $353 +$622 +176%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $146 −$146 -100%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $75 +$2 +3%
Santa Cruz: Franco Ribero vs Luis Guto Miguel Apr 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) Apr 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Apr 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Busan: James Kent Trotter vs Adam Walton Apr 15 $1 $0 -24%
Avalanche vs. Flames Apr 15 $475 +$28 +6%
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5 Apr 15 $150 −$5 -3%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $350 −$6 -2%
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres Apr 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $250 −$1 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Apr 15 $75 +$99 +132%
Jets vs. Utah Apr 15 $150 +$48 +32%
Spread: Suns (-4.5) Apr 15 $2 $0 +25%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $68 −$2 -3%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics Apr 15 $225 −$72 -32%
Wuning 2: Justin Boulais vs Philip Sekulic Apr 15 $73 +$94 +129%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Apr 15 $24 −$21 -88%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 15 $75 $0 -0%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $75 −$1 -1%
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5) Apr 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 15 $56 +$1 +1%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? Apr 15 $125 −$4 -4%
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $150 −$7 -4%
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 15 $75 +$5 +7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 15 $75 +$30 +40%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-03-17? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $75 +$27 +36%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Apr 15 $150 +$30 +20%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $150 +$157 +105%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $75 +$32 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $1 7m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 25¢ $54 7m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 25¢ $75 7m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 28¢ $3 7m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 60¢ $75 8m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 21¢ $29 10m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $176 17m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $76 17m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $1 35m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $80 35m
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $75 35m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 75¢ $40 50m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 9¢ $75 55m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 55m
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $75 55m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $75 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $51 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $8 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $75 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $75 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 1h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY No 8¢ $75 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $75 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $75 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 16¢ $30 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $75 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $75 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $75 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $75 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,425.72 · official $9,473.10 (match) · 464 history records