Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb07e…e682 weather 454 markets active 3h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$254 (+6%) realized +$273 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate76%335W / 105L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$77
14 days+$71
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +5.0% -5.0% 74% 71% -0.6%
≤30d 282 +4.9% -5.1% 77% 72% -4.6%
≤90d 440 +5.6% -4.4% 76% 72% -4.2%
all 440 +5.6% -4.4% 76% 72% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 72% -4.2%
10% -13.6% 62% -13.3%
15% -21.9% 42% -21.7%
20% -29.6% 15% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$273
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses335 / 105
Open positions14
Markets (closed)440 / 454
History coverage43d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 440 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? No 66¢ 57¢ $26 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? No 66¢ 100¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? No 88¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 69¢ 53¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 61¢ 90¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 67¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 65¢ 36¢ $10 $6 −$5 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? No 90¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? No 82¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? No 73¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 63¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? No 74¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? No 67¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? No 59¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $11 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $11 +$7 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$10 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 68¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $5 34h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.43 · official $101.81 · 1069 history records