Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B0 0xb07b…541d other 117 markets active 1d ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$722 (+11%) realized +$719 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate64%72W / 41L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$517
7 days+$512
14 days+$633
30 days+$635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$67
other 29% +$580
sports 8% +$64
politics 1% −$5
finance 0% +$5
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +28.4% +16.2% 71% 52% +23.2%
≤30d 39 +29.4% +17.1% 74% 44% +1.6%
≤90d 59 +5.2% -4.8% 64% 36% +0.6%
all 113 +5.3% -4.7% 64% 38% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 38% -0.0%
10% -13.9% 28% -9.6%
15% -22.2% 24% -18.3%
20% -29.8% 19% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$719
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses72 / 41
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)113 / 117
History coverage236d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 93¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+50%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 93¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 69¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 46¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $29 +$40 +138%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $64 +$8 +13%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $770 +$487 +63%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +285%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $12 +$15 +128%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $8 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +43%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $323 −$3 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 16 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 16 $43 +$6 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $16 +$3 +22%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$145 +290%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +104%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$17 +126%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $197 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $219 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24? May 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 23 $3,015 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? May 23 $0 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? May 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 23 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 23 $69 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 23 $2 +$2 +154%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? May 22 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 21 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 21 $9 +$6 +61%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? May 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 20 $19 $0 +2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? May 19 $3 +$2 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $14 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 27¢ $8 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 27¢ $19 27h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 91¢ $51 27h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 91¢ $21 27h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 80¢ $64 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $29 33h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $15 37h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 37h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 39¢ $15 2d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $8 3d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 46¢ $82 3d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 46¢ $93 3d
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 53¢ $74 3d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 53¢ $76 3d
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 4d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 74¢ $444 4d
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 64¢ $320 5d
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 64¢ $323 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $49 5d
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.86 · official $33.86 (match) · 416 history records