Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb077…8fe8 sports 526 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$126,235 (-15%) realized −$127,674 · open +$1,439
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%262W / 262L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,594per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$3,542est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 134d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$49,715
crypto 6% −$3,865
politics 0% −$1,512
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 52% -16.6%
≤30d 145 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 48% -18.8%
≤90d 145 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 48% -18.8%
all 524 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 49% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 49% -15.7%
10% -24.0% 47% -23.7%
15% ← realistic here -31.3% 45% -31.1%
20% -38.1% 41% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,963) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,288 vs −$1,503 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$5,489
Realized−$127,674
Unrealized+$1,439
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses262 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,542
Open positions2
Markets (closed)524 / 526
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$1,594
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 47¢ 100¢ $2,575 $5,487 +$2,912 (+113%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 45¢ 0¢ $1,474 $2 −$1,473 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $1,011 +$575 +57%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1,498 −$1,480 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $1,496 −$1,474 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,282 +$1,715 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,999 −$1,973 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,200 +$1,897 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,500 +$1,141 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,881 −$1,881 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 15 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,490 +$1,836 +123%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1,996 +$1,479 +74%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,137 +$2,858 +134%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $1,502 −$1,502 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2,501 −$2,501 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,536 +$1,487 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,493 +$2,502 +100%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $1,497 −$1,497 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,474 −$2,474 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $2,509 +$2,576 +103%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $1,490 +$984 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,411 −$1,411 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $1,490 −$1,490 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2,032 −$2,032 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $3,081 −$3,081 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1,500 +$1,291 +86%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,515 +$735 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,500 +$1,009 +67%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1,716 +$745 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1,434 +$283 +20%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $1,763 +$670 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1,522 +$1,242 +82%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $2,001 +$2,023 +101%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,500 +$1,577 +105%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,582 +$949 +60%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,474 +$1,080 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,146 −$2,146 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,011 −$2,011 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $2,601 −$2,601 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,039 −$2,039 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,416 −$2,416 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $1,603 +$900 +56%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $1,828 +$1,271 +70%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 11 $1,513 +$1,317 +87%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $1,514 +$628 +42%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,511 +$1,862 +123%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $2,247 +$1,414 +63%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $1,601 +$2,142 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $229 41m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $769 41m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $11 41m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $9 41m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $1,500 41m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $21 45m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $5 45m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $13 46m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $5 46m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $17 46m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 100¢ $1,586 50m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 63¢ $1,011 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $1,499 3h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 61¢ $1,498 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 19h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,492 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $2,997 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,994 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $3,097 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $1,282 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $1,200 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $2,640 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $24 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $1,475 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $3,326 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $13 26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $134 26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $1,342 26h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,830 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,488.80 · official $5,488.80 (match) · 3500 history records