Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb074…9fb3 weather 862 markets active 1d ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$224 (+3%) realized +$244 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%353W / 498L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$106
14 days−$488
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$161
other 8% −$53
crypto 2% −$1
sports 1% +$7
politics 0% +$7
finance 0% +$4
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -23.4% -30.7% 39% 32% -28.9%
≤30d 337 -3.5% -12.7% 40% 36% -13.2%
≤90d 797 -1.5% -10.9% 41% 37% -8.0%
all 851 -1.0% -10.5% 41% 37% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 37% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 32% -16.3%
15% -26.8% 28% -24.4%
20% -34.0% 24% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses353 / 498
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)851 / 862
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+8%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+17%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 47¢ 14¢ $24 $7 −$17 (-69%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 39¢ 14¢ $18 $6 −$12 (-65%)
Will Palmeiras win Brazil Série A? Yes 33¢ 70¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+110%)
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? Yes 31¢ 39¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+68%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$9 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $15 −$9 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 16 $16 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $9 +$4 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 10? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 7? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$3 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$8 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 32h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 33h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 33h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 41h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $19 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 45h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 46h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $11 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.61 · official $69.48 (match) · 3500 history records