Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B0 0xb074…ca08 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+15%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$2
sports 31% +$3
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +20.4% +8.9% 58% 50% +9.9%
≤30d 16 +25.4% +13.5% 56% 50% +14.6%
≤90d 16 +25.4% +13.5% 56% 50% +14.6%
all 16 +25.4% +13.5% 56% 50% +14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.5% 50% +14.6%
10% +2.6% 44% +3.6%
15% -7.3% 44% -6.4%
20% -16.4% 31% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)16 / 28
History coverage25d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $1 +$3 +268%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 47h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 31¢ $1 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 12d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 24d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.98 · official $15.98 (match) · 39 history records