Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb06a…8aea crypto 100 markets active 3d ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-9%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%56W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$24
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$6
politics 25% −$2
other 8% −$18
sports 7% −$11
economics 2% −$5
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -17.6% -25.4% 50% 50% -64.8%
≤30d 42 -49.2% -54.1% 29% 26% -53.6%
≤90d 95 -5.9% -14.9% 58% 45% -19.7%
all 96 -5.1% -14.1% 58% 46% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 46% -19.4%
10% -22.3% 35% -27.1%
15% -29.9% 25% -34.1%
20% -36.7% 16% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses56 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 100
History coverage178d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 +$1 +136%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$8 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $38 −$6 -16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2 May 21 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 19 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 19 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 19 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 19 $6 −$3 -52%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 17 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 17 $2 +$3 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 17 $8 +$3 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 25¢ $1 2d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $11 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 2¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 7d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 7d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 7d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25d
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2 SELL Yes 1¢ $3 27d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.84 · official $16.84 (match) · 283 history records