Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B0 0xb06a…52f5 weather 575 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2014 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$42,929 (+334%) realized +$42,929 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%88W / 505L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2014.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% +$3,557
other 28% +$1,055
tech 2% +$56
sports 2% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2014 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-74.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 555 -80.7% -82.6% 11% 10% -63.8%
≤30d 593 -71.3% -74.0% 15% 14% -45.8%
≤90d 593 -71.3% -74.0% 15% 14% -45.8%
all 593 -71.3% -74.0% 15% 14% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2014.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -74.0% 14% -45.8%
10% ← realistic here -76.5% 12% -51.0%
15% -78.8% 10% -55.7%
20% -80.9% 7% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$29 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42,929
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses88 / 505
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)593 / 575
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2014.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 593 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 22? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 23? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 21? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 26? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or higher on April 21? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 22? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C or higher on April 29? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on April 2 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 22? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 22? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 25? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Apr Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 23? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on April 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14? Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 3? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 21? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 29? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on April 24 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 16? Jun 17 $228 −$228 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 31? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on April 10? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 23? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 27? Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 21? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 4? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on June 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 38°C or higher on April 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 43°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 44°C or higher on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 96°F or higher on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 91¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 96°F or higher on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 10 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records