trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +41.2% | +27.8% | 100% | 50% | +24.9% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +41.2% | +27.8% | 100% | 50% | +24.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +41.2% | +27.8% | 100% | 50% | +24.9% |
| all | 18 | +2.0% | -7.8% | 67% | 33% | -0.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.8% | 33% | -0.4% |
| 10% | -16.6% | 28% | -9.9% |
| 15% | -24.6% | 28% | -18.6% |
| 20% | -32.0% | 28% | -26.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 3¢ | $5 | $1 | −$4 (-81%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 18 | $166 | +$13 | +8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 18 | $123 | +$74 | +60% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen | Jun 18 | $105 | +$93 | +88% |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | Jun 18 | $101 | +$9 | +9% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Feb 20 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | Feb 20 | $20 | −$12 | -64% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on February 20? | Feb 20 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | Feb 20 | $7 | +$2 | +21% |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? | Feb 17 | $200 | +$1 | +1% |
| Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? | Jan 17 | $400 | +$21 | +5% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | Jan 16 | $100 | +$9 | +9% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 16 | $10 | +$23 | +230% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on | Jan 15 | $20 | +$10 | +52% |
| Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) | Jan 15 | $32 | +$48 | +150% |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Jan 14 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago pres | Jan 03 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | Mar 21 | $94 | −$94 | -100% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Mar 21 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |